Blame it on Rio...

It's that time. On Friday, August 5, we begin the summer games of the 31st Olympiad. Rio de Janeiro will be the host and there's going to be trouble. I've worked on large scale events in Rio and many of its problems are insurmountable.

This will mark my 14th Olympiad, Summer and Winter, and I've seen the games from every angle, inside and out, top to bottom.  I've worked with the local organizing committees, the International Olympic Committee, local governments, sponsors and the athletes themselves.

No event has a longer history than the Olympics. They began more than seven centuries BC. The modern games got their start in 1896. Olympiad is the Greek word for the four year period between games. That's what makes this the 31st Olympiad.

Now that the brief history lesson is over, why is there going to be trouble in Rio? The main reason is that there is always trouble in Rio. Crime and violence pervade the city. The beaches and Carnival drown out the realities of what goes on in the city day in and day out.

One of our round-the-world sailing events had a stopover in Rio and we barely escaped with our lives. Boats were burned. Goods were stolen. Men were attacked and women were physically abused. The only response we could get from local law enforcement was that they were sorry and they would watch our compound more closely.

These problems were not politically motivated or terrorism related. They were purely uncontrolled lawbreaking delinquency. Jane has vowed she will never return.  She was frightened just to be on the streets. All of us stayed very close to "home".

Today, when you add in the political unrest going on with the ouster of the president coupled with the worldwide fear of terrorist activity and the Zika virus, it is very hard to believe that we will make it through the games without incident.

Jane and I spent time at the Beijing Olympics with the delegation from Rio who were there for planning meetings.  We shared with them our concerns about their city hosting the games.and their response was that the crime problems were not going to go away. Their only hope was that the athletes and the competition could be isolated with extreme security measures being taken wherever the games touched the city.

It's sad to me to think that the athletes from around the world will be penned up and led by security officials everywhere they go. Security for spectators will be no less scrutinized. The Sochi Olympics were controlled in a similar fashion but there was a war going on. Even the ever-present social unrest in China was less of a concern than what's about to happen in Brasil.

The Olympics began as a people's event among friendly countries. But increasingly, it's politics, warring factions and money that dictate the outcome of the games, instead of the competition on the field. My role will again be to help local organizers with sponsorship, international media relations and crisis communications.

Rio is a beautiful city and the vast majority of its citizens are welcoming to visitors. However, television may well be our first and safest avenue for watching the events. I hope for the best at the 31st Olympiad. But I am prepared for the worst.  Here's hoping.